Benjamin Cowen|08. Juli
Bitcoin: Brief Window of Strength
đ Bitcoin: Brief Window of Strength in July of Midterm Years
In this video, Benjamin Cowen analyzes the typical pattern of Bitcoin during midterm years (e.g., 2018, 2022). He highlights that July often provides a short window of strength after the market has experienced a severe sell-off in late June.
đ The 4-Year Cycle & Seasonal Patterns
- Historical Recurrence: June/July often marks a market bottom. A brief counter-trend rally follows, which peaks in July or August.
- 2018: Bitcoin rallied 38% in July, only to give back those gains in August/September.
- 2022: Bitcoin gained 19-20% in July, which was subsequently lost in August/September.
- 2014: July was negative (-5%), but August/September were also negative.
- Average July Performance: +9% (since 2012), though with high standard deviation.
- Key Insight: Gains in July are often temporaryâthis is a brief window of strength within an overall weak year.
âĄď¸ Current Market & Strategy
- Current Situation: Bitcoin is testing key moving averages (200-day EMA at ~$74,000). The analyst expects the EMA to drop to ~$70,000 by late July.
- Resistance & Support: Bitcoin is caught between the 200-week moving average (support) and the bear market resistance band. A breakout decision is expected later in the year.
- Recommended Strategy: Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) during the second half of the midterm year. Avoid emotional trading (e.g., buying at local highs, selling at lows).
đ§ Psychological Pitfalls
- Predictable Emotions: After each brief rally, many question the bear market narrative. The analyst warns against abandoning the cycle strategy based on short-term price movements.
- Bottom Line: The 4-year cycle does not mean the market only goes downâit defines windows of weakness and strength. July 2025 is showing signs of this seasonal strength (recovery from a dip to $57,000).
"Make hay while the sun shines, but don't expect the summer to last forever." â Benjamin Cowen
