Bitcoin’s Surprising Strength
- Ben Cowan admitted he was wrong: he expected a Q4 flush, but Bitcoin broke above the May high and now trades around $85K.
- Bitcoin has shrugged off macro headwinds (rising yields, strong dollar, higher energy prices) that normally would pressure it.
Cycle Analysis & Bear Market Comparison
- The current bear market lasted only ~9 months – similar to 2019, but without a massive volume spike at the bottom.
- Compared to the previous cycle (Terra/Luna, FTX), there were fewer ‚sins‘ to pay for, hence less pain.
- The 4-year cycle remains intact, even if the bottom came earlier than expected (summer instead of Q4).
Liquidity & Altcoins
- Global net liquidity is still severely constrained (~$25T vs $30T in 2021).
- Monetary policy is less restrictive now (Fed funds rate below 2-year yield), allowing altcoins to rally.
- However, a true alt season is unlikely unless Bitcoin first has a euphoric rally and liquidity surges (which would require a crisis first).
- The Bitcoin pair index (ALT/BTC) does not yet show a sustainable rotation.
Key Level to Watch
- The decisive factor is the weekly close above/below ~$82,800 (May high).
- Above it: Bullish – the bottom is likely in.
- Below it: Bearish – could still see a Q4 low.
Social Sentiment Reality Check
- The recent spike in YouTube views is not due to renewed retail interest, but to a change in how views are counted (now counts after 1 second).
- Other metrics (Coinbase app ranking, Google Trends, Twitter followers) show no recovery in retail demand.
Takeaway: Stay flexible. As long as Bitcoin holds above $83K, the bullish case is intact. A weekly close below that level could trigger another Q4 decline.