Bitcoin Falls to the 200W Moving Average
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Historical Pattern: Bitcoin touches the 200-week moving average (~$61.8K), as in every cycle. This occurred almost exactly four years after the previous test in June 2022.
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Potential Low: A low is expected in June, with a possible counter-trend rally in July/August. However, there is a risk of further decline until October (especially in a capitulation event).
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Comparison to 2019: The current structure resembles 2019, where Bitcoin rallied after a June low.
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Macro Influences: The Bank of Japan may raise rates in June, historically negative for crypto (unwind of carry trade). The Fed meeting on June 17th is also notable.
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Outlook: If the 200-week moving average holds through June, a July rally is likely. However, a final bottom might occur in Q4 if the stock market corrects.
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Strategy: Don't give up; learn from mistakes. Diversification (e.g., into stock index funds) can mitigate losses.
