
Bitcoin: Getting Tight! You MUST Act Now! + Stock Portfolio Update
đ Bitcoin: Sideways and Low Interest
- Bitcoin is stuck around 60,000 USD, trading in a range between 61,000 and 67,000 USD (~10%), which is low given its historical volatility.
- Chart analysis: Above its 200-hour EMA, but lacking a clear trend. Key levels: 67,000 USD (breakout signal) and 58,000 USD (breakdown signal).
- Lost narrative: Attention shifts to stocks, especially AI names, diminishing Bitcoin's market relevance.
- Google Trends & social signals: Interest hit rock bottom; moves are mostly leveraged PvP action.
- Clarity Act: Currently under review in the White House, but facing resistance; Polymarket odds for 2026 are 16%.
- Failure could push Bitcoin lower; a surprise pass could send it to 67â68k USD, but won't **** the bear trend.
- Pro-Haltefrist-Bewegung started a petition (see prohaltefrist.de) to keep the 1-year holding period for crypto in Germany.
- 33,000 signatures already collected â quorum reached â now showing strong public support.
- Mixed altcoin performance: XMR (Monero) showed a slight gain, while Kanton and Hypel lost value; overall no clear trend.
- New ETF-preparation: Some and historically weak ETFs closing, e.g., Bitunix announced winding down its Bitcoin ETF â a qantial signal for cycle end.
- Security: Be aware of phishers for wallet verification (EMA), use hardware wallets (Ledger, Trezor, Bitbox) with random seeds; the Cold Card hack (â130 million USD) underscores the EEDImportance.
- Record highs for the S&P, driven by the Magnificent 7 and AI momentum; risk-on is back.
- Geopolitics: Iran-Oman route/grease processing avoids including Hormuz â hopes for further positive news.
- Warning: Mike Burry (Michael Burri) still sees a 1987-style crash, citing inflated valuations.
- Portfolio still only 74% in a money market fund, 10% cash, and rest in ETFs (e.g., All-World) plus biased AI names â limited to 5â7% of the portfolio.
- New format: Road to Glory â starting with ~5â10k ⏠for active Swing-Trading.
- Job Openings (JOLTS): Weakened in 2.9 million openings (below expectations), but not catastrophic.
- Fed rate cut probability: Data-dependent; chance for September currently around 50%, falling.
- Avoid listen to those âguaranteed goes lowerâ voices; markets often surprise.
- Consider continuous DCA (Sparplan) and set own limits; find a strategy that sleeps well.
- Ultimately, the marketâs uncertainty is high â perhaps fair buying soon for a longer view.
Bottom Line: Overall, wait for a clean breakout or breakdown above 67k or below 58k; otherwise stay neutral and live your own peace of mind.






