Benjamin Cowen|07. Juni
Bitcoin Enters the 3rd Stage of the Bear Market
Summary: Bitcoin in the Third Stage of the Bear Market
The speaker argues that the Bitcoin bear market can be divided into three stages, and we are now in the third and final stage. This stage is characterized by widespread acceptance of the bear market among investors and could last from June to October 2026.
The Three Stages of the Bear Market
- Stage 1 (October 2025 to February 2026): Only a few believe it's a bear market. The general expectation is that prices will rise again.
- Stage 2 (February to June 2026): About half of investors recognize the bear market. The other half clings to hopes like a 'supercycle'. This stage ends with a new low.
- Stage 3 (June to October 2026): The majority believes in the bear market. This is the most psychologically difficult phase, where many admit their mistake.
Investor Psychology and Market Signals
- The speaker observes that a 60-65% consensus on a direction (e.g., 'it will go lower') is often correct. Only when consensus reaches 75-80% is the majority usually wrong, which then signals a trend reversal.
- A key signal is when strong optimists (bulls) start to turn pessimistic (bearish), indicating an advanced market phase.
Outlook and Potential Lows
- The low in June 2026 could be around the current $60,000 or lower. A strong break below previous lows (as in 2014) would be negative, while a simple test (as in 2018) would be a good sign.
- If Bitcoin drops sharply now, the October low might be less severe. The exact end depends on how low the price goes.
Conclusion: The bear market is psychologically advanced. When most investors are convinced it will go lower, the bottom is usually near. The speaker expects the final low in October 2026.
