Benjamin Cowen|02. Mai
Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation
🧐 Bitcoin in the Midterm Year 2026: Between 2018 Comparison vs. 2014 Exception
The YouTuber analyzes the current Bitcoin price development, focusing on seasonal patterns from past midterm years. The core message: Bitcoin is in an expected weakness phase, supported by historical cycles.
🕰️ Historical Comparisons and Timing
- 2018 as Base Scenario: The current rally (five green weeks from a higher low in April) strongly resembles 2018. Back then, a five-week rally was followed by a decline into June.
- 2014 as an Alternative: If Bitcoin rallies into June, it would follow the 2014 pattern, but with a bottom likely not until October.
- Key Weakness Windows: Early February, Early April, June, October. Historically, these are the most probable times for lows.
- ROI Comparison: Current year-to-date (YTD) performance is at the upper end of one standard deviation from the average of previous midterm years.
🔍 Technical Indicators and Signals
- 50-Week Moving Average (50W-SMA): A re-entry above this would be a bullish signal. Historically, it marked the end of bear markets. Bitcoin is currently below this average.
- 200-Day Moving Average (200D-SMA): In the 2018 cycle, it coincided with resistance. Today it is much higher, making a rally more difficult.
- Price Targets: A potential retest of the February low (around $60,000) in October 2026.
⚠️ Important Distinctions and Warnings
- The creator emphasizes: Weakness windows ≠ sell signals. Sell into strength, buy into weakness.
- He himself sold in Q4 2025 and avoids short-term timing attempts.
- The four-year cycle is not broken, despite claims to the contrary. Top formations (days 1,059-1,068) are consistent.
- Key Point: No one can predict exact lows – it is about probabilities.
📊 Conclusion
The analysis points to a continued sideways to downward movement in the coming months. A sustainable uptrend is considered likely only after a deeper low in October 2026. The YouTuber advises patience and disciplined risk management over short-term speculation.
