
Bitcoin: Bull Case Vs. Bear Case
This video analyzes various indicators and assigns points to bulls or bears, aiming to set aside bias and focus solely on data.
On-Chain Indicators
- Puell Multiple: Not yet below 0.4 (bear point).
- RSI (Weekly/Monthly): Shows higher lows – bullish (2 bull points).
- MVRV Z-Score: Has not yet fallen below zero (bear point).
- Transaction Fees: Very low – bullish (1 bull point).
- Realised Price & Balance Price: Bitcoin historically bottomed below these – not yet (2 bear points).
- Market Cap / Thermal Cap: Not fully reset (bear point).
- Minor Cap / Thermal Cap: Not at previous cycle lows (bear point).
- Long-Term Holder Accumulation: Rising and plateauing – bullish (1 bull point).
Time-Based Indicators
- 2019 Comparison (Time): Similar duration – bullish (1 point).
- Four-Year Cycle: Historically later bottoms – bearish leaning but not conclusive (1 bear, 1 bull).
- Low-to-Low / Peak-to-Peak / Halving ROI: All suggest a later bottom (2-3 bear points, 1 bull point).
Other Indicators
- Volume: No massive spike as in previous cycles (bear point).
- Social Interest: Google Trends falling, Coinbase app ranking at floor – mixed (1 bear, 1 bull).
- ETF Launch (Pattern): Similar to QQQ in 1999 – potentially bearish (1 point).
- Golden Cross: Bullish leaning but not always reliable (1 bull point).
- Dollar & Rates: Stronger dollar via rate hike possible – bearish (1 point).
- 90-Day Coin Days Destroyed: Rising – bullish (1 point).
- Whale Activity: Low compared to prior bottoms – bearish (1 point).
- Cow Corridor: Hitting lower band – bullish (1 point).
Final Tally
Count stands at 9 for bears vs. 7 for bulls, plus some ties. The host emphasizes both sides have valid arguments. The recommended strategy is dynamic DCA (Dollar-Cost Average) through the second half of the midterm year, rather than trying to time the exact bottom.






