Welcome to Nofinity

The speaker discusses various indicators to identify a potential bottom in the Bitcoin market, focusing on time-based and price-based capitulation in the current bear market.

Key Indicator: ROI from the Low

• The ROI from the low is the most important indicator for timing the bottom.
• Historically, Bitcoin's top occurred within one week of prior cycles (day 1,059–1,068 from the low).
• The next bottom is expected around 100–110 days from now, i.e., late Q3 / early Q4.
• This indicator tells when, not where the bottom will be.

Time-Based vs. Price-Based Capitulation

• Time-based capitulation: The market follows the typical 4-year cycle. So far, the bear market is normal (ROI comparable to previous midterm years).
• Price-based capitulation: A sudden, sharp price drop (like 2020) could end the bear market abruptly. Not yet seen, but possible.
• If prices fall well below current averages, price-based capitulation would dominate.

Additional Bottom Indicators

• Volume: Bottoms usually occur after prolonged low volume followed by a massive volume spike. Currently, volume is low.
• MVRV Z-Score: Must drop below zero (currently 0.251). This has happened at every historical bottom.
• Running 1-Year ROI: Typically hits a low near the end of the midterm year.
• Realized Price: Bitcoin always falls below the realized price (~$53k) in bear markets. Not yet, but likely.
• Balance Price: A drop to ~$38k would signal full price-based capitulation (only a few days below this level historically).
• On-Chain Risk Indicator: Currently at 0.195, close to historical bottoms (0.1).

Strategy and Outlook

• The speaker recommends investing in Bitcoin during the second half of midterm years – this has worked well.
• Typical path: Relief rally in late summer, then final drop in Q4 to the cycle bottom.
• The ITC conference in November was deliberately scheduled around the expected bottom.
• Despite current fear, the 4-year cycle may hold at the bottom – skeptics could soon become believers.

Conclusion

The speaker monitors multiple indicators to narrow down both the timing and price level of the next Bitcoin bottom. Patience and adherence to historical patterns are key.

Summary follows...

Summary follows...

Visa is integrating OUSD (Open USD), a new stablecoin backed by a consortium of over 167 companies – including BlackRock, Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase, and Google. Unlike USDT (Tether) and USDC (Circle), OUSD is not controlled by a single issuer but governed by the Open Standard alliance.

Key Differences

• Free minting & redemption for partner companies
• Revenue sharing: Nearly all interest income from reserve assets is distributed to partners – Open Standard only retains a small operational fee.
• Collaborative governance: Decisions are made collectively, not by one entity.

Why This Threatens Circle and Tether

• Circle generated ~$770M in Q4 2025, Tether $10B in annual profit – mostly from T-bill interest.
• OUSD’s model: If it generates $1B in its first year, each of the 167 partners would receive ~$6M.
• Market reaction: Circle’s stock dropped 17% after the announcement; Mizuho downgraded CRCL from Neutral to Underperform, cutting the price target from $85 to $50.

Visa’s Strategy: Not Just One Coin

Visa’s CEO insists the company remains multi-coin and multi-chain. OUSD is only the first stablecoin on Visa’s new platform for banks and fintechs. Visa continues to support USDC, EURC, PYUSD, and others. The real product is the infrastructure, not favoritism.

Potential Market Impact

• Circle may have to share more reserve income with partners to retain them.
• Tether is less affected – its focus is on emerging markets, while OUSD targets institutional and commercial payments.
• Skepticism: Previous consortium models (e.g., Paxos USDG) struggled. OUSD’s success depends on real liquidity and user adoption.

Ironic Twist

Traditional financial institutions (Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock) are now building the next generation of on-chain dollars – the very institutions crypto was supposed to disrupt.

Conclusion

OUSD could challenge the duopoly of USDT and USDC, but it must first build trust and liquidity. Even if it fails, it forces incumbents to improve their terms. The era of unchallenged dominance for Tether and Circle is ending.

📊 You vs. Average: Money, Income and Wealth in Germany

In this video, Markus from Finanzf shows where you stand compared to the average German – from income and spending to wealth and pension.

• Average salary (full-time, 2025): €6,441 gross/month
• Median income: €5,466 – earning more means you belong to the richer half
• Income distribution:
  • Bottom 10%: up to €33,828
  • Bottom third: approx. €44,000
  • Top 20%: from about €80,000
  • Top 10%: from about €100,000
  • Top 1%: from €219,110

• 76% live mainly from employment (men 83%, women 69%)
• 8% from relatives (mostly women: 13%)
• 6% from unemployment benefits
• 5% from pension
• 3% from social welfare/sick pay
• 1% from parental allowance (almost only women)
• 1% from own assets

• Threshold: 60% of median net household income
• Single person: below €1,446 net/month
• 2 adults + 2 children (<14): below €3,036
• 16.1% of the population at risk of poverty (2025)
  • Highest rates: unemployed (64.9%), singles (30.9%), single parents (28.7%), retirees (19.1%)

• Housing: 38% (2018: 34%) – for low-income households (<€1,300 net) even 46%
• Food: 14%
• Transport: 12%
• Leisure/Sports/Culture: 9%
• Restaurants/Hotels: 7%
• Information/Communication: 5%
• Clothing/Shoes: 4%

• Homeownership rate: 47% (EU's lowest; EU average 68%)
  • Leader: Romania (94%)
  • In Germany: Saarland 60%, Berlin only 16%

• Savings rate: 10.3% (2024: 11.2%; EU average 8%)
• Gross savings rate: 20% (EU 14.6%)
• Emergency fund: 32% of households cannot cover an unexpected €1,300 expense
• Over-indebtedness: 8.16% of adults
  • Causes: 23% for single parents (separation/divorce/death), 18% illness/accident, 17% unemployment

• Median: €10,300 per household (Eurozone: €14,000)
  • Bottom 10%: up to €800
  • Bottom 40%: up to €50,000
  • Top 20%: from €471,000
  • Top 10%: from €775,000
• Why little wealth despite saving?
  • 65% of financial assets are low-risk (cash, accounts, guaranteed insurance)
  • Only 23% in capital markets (14% funds, 7% stocks, 2% bonds)
  • Real return (inflation-adjusted): only 0.6% p.a. – only the richest 10% achieve positive real returns
  • Positive: 2025, 14 million people owned stocks/funds/ETFs (record) – especially younger people (14–39) and those in Bavaria

• Median gross pension: between €900 and €1,200 – 50% receive even less
• Large gender gap

Conclusion: Germans save a lot but with low returns – and the state pension is often insufficient. This comparison helps to realistically assess your own financial position.

Mixed Signals in the U.S. Labor Market

This video breaks down the latest labor market data and why the Fed is facing uncertainty.

• Non-farm payrolls came in at 23,000 vs. expectations of 80,000 – the first negative monthly change since 2025.
• Despite weak job growth, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.5% (November) to 4.1%.
• Reason: The labor force participation rate fell sharply from 62.5% to 61.4%. Many people have stopped looking for work and are no longer counted as unemployed.
• Layoffs remain low: Initial jobless claims hit 189,000 – the lowest level in decades.
• Regional divergence: Some states see rising unemployment, others falling. Unlike a typical recession (e.g., 2008), the whole country is not affected.
• Globally, the GDP-weighted unemployment rate is ticking up but has recently stabilized.

• The probability of a Fed rate hike in September is only about 44%.
• Several central banks (Brazil, South Korea, Australia) have resumed rate hikes; the global easing cycle has stalled.
• Recession risk remains low according to the dashboard. As long as initial claims stay below 300,000, no imminent recession.
• A stock market correction is expected around mid-September, similar to prior midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022).

Bottom line: The labor market sends mixed signals – weak job creation, but few layoffs and falling unemployment due to workers dropping out. The Fed is cautious, while markets await a clear direction.

The Eureka Zero 55S is a revised single-dosing grinder priced at around €250 – a significant drop from its predecessor (€330–400) due to production shifting to China. It targets beginners on a tight budget who still want quality espresso at home.

• King‑Size grind adjustment wheel: Enables fine, reproducible settings – a huge improvement over the old mini‑wheel.
• Front lever: Starts/stops grinding without reaching behind – more accessible and practical.
• Portafilter holder with integrated switch; assembly requires Phillips screws (an “IKEA moment”).

• Narrow, tall main peak (around 205 µm) – many uniform particles.
• High fines peak (>40%) – many small particles that can cause a dry, dusty aftertaste.
• Tip: For drier coffees, grind slightly coarser and extract shorter (25–26 seconds).
• Overall body‑forward – clarity from the main peak, but always plenty of texture.

• 18 g in 10.5 seconds, ~21 g/min – solid mid‑range.
• 83 dB – quiet operation, typical pleasant Eureka grinding sound.
• Temperature stable over 5 consecutive shots.

• Grind setting stays intact when opening (adjustment from below) – major plus.
• Still requires a Phillips screwdriver, removal of logo plate and burrs – somewhat fiddly.
• Recommendation: Purge with grinder cleaner every 1–2 weeks, disassemble and brush monthly.

• Temporary retention: 1.1 g – relatively high for a single‑dosing grinder.
• Permanent retention: 1.6 g – total 2.7 g.
• A tilting base (forward tilt) can reduce temporary retention by about 0.5 g.
• Consistency is good nonetheless: standard deviation of 0.05 g over five consecutive grinds.

• For €250, a very solid entry‑level grinder that handles 60–70% of all coffees well.
• Ideal paired with a budget espresso machine (total setup from ~€400).
• No digital weak points – pure mechanical quality.
• Caveat: High retention requires a bit more care and regular cleaning.

Testers’ verdict: Fun to use, delivers tasty espresso, and offers excellent value in its price range.