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Latest Analyses(7)

SUPPLY SHOCK? 🚨 Saylor Strikes, MS Stacks, Demand oustrips, STH RP Achieved
InvestAnswers|11. Mai

SUPPLY SHOCK? 🚨 Saylor Strikes, MS Stacks, Demand oustrips, STH RP Achieved

📈 Signs of a Bitcoin Supply Shock

The host analyzes current market data and sees several bullish signals pointing towards a tightening of Bitcoin supply. He emphasizes that demand from major players like MicroStrategy and spot ETFs far outpaces newly mined supply.

  • Price Action & Key Levels:

    • Bitcoin closed the week at $82,188, a 4.8% increase.
    • Price is now above the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH RP), a key resistance level. This is a bullish sign as short-term holders are not selling off en masse.
    • The uptrend from the low of $64,000 remains intact.
    • The ATR indicator has surpassed level 4 (~$78,000); the next target is level 5 at ~$96,000.

  • Institutional Demand vs. Supply:

    • Demand from institutions and companies massively exceeds newly mined Bitcoin.
      • In 2024, 218,000 BTC were mined, but MicroStrategy alone bought 257,000 BTC – more than the entire new supply.
      • In 2025 (YTD): MicroStrategy's 145,834 BTC purchases represent four times the mining output.
    • Spot ETFs have seen strong inflows for 6 consecutive weeks. Every $1 billion in ETF inflow is estimated to increase the Bitcoin price by approx. 3%.
    • Morgan Stanley's new Bitcoin ETF had its first month with zero outflows and now manages $250 million.

  • Supply Tightening (Supply Shock):

    • OTC Desk reserves (for large purchases) hit a multi-year low of just 142,000 BTC.
    • 88% of all Bitcoin has not moved in the last 3 months – near an all-time high.
    • Exchange reserves are at a 7-year low of 2.21 million BTC (only 5.88% of circulating supply).

  • On-Chain Metrics:

    • Whale accumulation: 1,000+ BTC whales have bought 270,000 BTC in 2025 so far.
    • RHODL Ratio at 4.5 (cycle bottom) and MVRV Z-Score at 1.2 (far from overheating).
    • Hashrate is near 1 zettahash, indicating high network security.

  • Macroeconomic Context:

    • US national debt is approaching $40 trillion. The debt per taxpayer could double to $800,000.
    • This drives currency debasement (inflation), making Bitcoin attractive as a hedge.

  • Outlook & Forecasts:

    • VanEck and Bitwise forecast a Bitcoin price of $1 million (by 2031).
    • A chart pattern similar to Google's 2021 stock run suggests potential up to $250,000.
    • Short-term, a return to $90,000 within 4-6 weeks is plausible if ETF inflows continue.
SOURCE